Cashgame challenge and Metagames.

Yeah I've been off poker again.... in the words of Neilmc I'm a "Part-timer".

May has been a very busy month socially for me, and at the weekend i was in St Andrews again - this time for a stag do. Good fun was had by all, although it was quite a tame affair, no nakedness (strippers or lampposts) and generally no stag baiting, other than the consuming of a dirty pint.

On the poker front, i have a new goal:

Myself, Neilmc and the beej have decided to have a little competition with the cash games. We've all started with $2k, playing 1/2NL, and when we reach milestones the other two have to purchase a prize for the winner.

$3k - fancy meal in Vegas
$5k - round of golf at a prestigious course
$10k - set of golf clubs
$25k - charity game of football at our team's ground
$50k - Day driving a F1 car
$100k - entry into a big live event.
$1m - trip into space.

Of course, I'm aiming to be at the $1m mark by the end of the year....

I started on our challenge yesterday. I only played a 90minute session, but four tabled, 1/2NL - all full rings.

I got off to a flyer and was up $340. There were a couple of interesting hands and hands that i definitely could have played better.

One that i still don't agree with my friends on unfolded like this:

I opened the button for $7 with 56dd, i had $200.
BB calls, with $150 total.

Flop 7d 8d Ac

I have an open ended straight flush draw. I am never folding on this flop.

He checked, i bet $12, if he had raised, i re-raise - if he calls I'm most likely racing, even versus a set I'm in decent enough shape and i don't see him calling much lighter at this stage, and if he does, I'm favourite.

He called my $12.

Turn Th

He checked - at this point i felt a check behind was probably best with my huge draw, i don't want him raising me at this point, and if he calls, i have built a big pot, and may feel inclined to bluff the river if i missed. I checked.

River Kd

Ok i hit my flush, but i hardly have the nuts. The ace of diamonds is still out there, he could still feasibly have hit the ace on the flop, with Axdd and rivered the nuts.

He led for $25 into a $39 pot, he had $117 back.

I saw this as a clear raise. I think I'm losing a ton of value at this level against a player who most likely isn't very good. The question as i see it is "how much do i raise?"

Do i make it $75, so it is $50 for him to call, or do i jam?

Well i figured if i made it $75 he would call with 2p+, and if i jammed he would call with a similar range - so i jammed. He thought for a while and folded.

I showed this hand to a few ppl, and a couple of them said they flat call the river, because only a bigger flush can call my shove. I think this is utter rubbish. One of my friends elaborated a little to say that against a good player he would flat call, and against a total idiot he would shove. I still wasn't happy with this answer. I found it too basic, why would a good player only call with a bigger flush? Would that not make him pretty exploitable (for a short time at least).

Say for example that i knew i was up against a "good" player in this example. Well a good player would surely value bet this river with two pair or a set - assuming they felt i had a hand to call a bet with. If they thought i didn't they could check and let me bluff.

My point is that when they bet the river, they will have: a) a bigger flush b) a set c) two pair d) a decent ace and expect to get looked up by worse e) air/missed straight draw.

If i shove 100% of the time in this spot, and we assume the villain is a "good player" and will only call with a flush, we can take advantage of them in a huge way. I can profitably shove 100% of my range, knowing that i will only get called by a small portion of his range. (It can be noted at this point that if we know he will only call with a flush, i should shove all my range but low diamonds, this could be overcomplicated further to include top set and the like, as if we think we will only be called by a flush we turn top set into a bluff, so a line has to be drawn somewhere, but you get the idea).

It gets a little tricky after you do it once, because it changes the dynamics - the metagame changes. Players have more information to make decisions.

For example - say the exact same occurrence happened 30minutes later - would the hand go the same way? Would my shove only get called by a bigger flush then? Perhaps, but i would expect a good player to adapt to the situation. The trick is knowing when they are ready to adapt and getting one step ahead of them. This is something that i am working on at the moment, and i think it is a leak in many a winning player's game. They often use their own thought processes and their own ranges to assess another player's holding.

Let me elaborate. Say you are playing a shorthanded cash game and you are raising 25% of hands (reasonable laggy shorthanded range). And you are playing against an unknown opponent, who you figure as kind of abc weak/tight. You raise the button, he folds in the bb. Next 5 orbits you raise on the button 4 times, and he folds each time. Then you open the button with 77, he 3bets you. You think this guy is tight, but then the thought drops into your head "wait a minute, he has to know that I've been opening 1/4 of hands and i have been pounding his bb, therefore he probably has got a little impatient and is fighting back, i have a hand way ahead of my range, I'll show him - all in!". It's at that point he snap calls and shows AA. Now, while this line of thought works against semi known foes, you have to be careful when to use it. It is important to be aware of your image, but it is even more important to know who is actually paying attention, and furthermore who will adapt to it. Is he typing in the chat box? Is he playing more than one game? Is he a regular at this level? All of these things and more contribute to your decision making process.

I will try and use the above in my low flush example.

The guy was only playing one table
He was sitting with $150 (ie had either bought in short or hadn't reloaded when he lost a hand)
He called my raise in the bb (not necessarily a bad idea, but in general you should try to limit the number of pots you place oop, as it is generally just spew)

These things suggest to me that he probably isn't very experienced, and certainly isn't a shark.

At the lower levels, players fall in love with their hands. "OMG i can't believe he just rivered me, OMG, but i have to call, i flopped a set!" I felt his calling of a shove range and his calling of $50 more range were pretty similar, so i shoved...

Now if i had him pegged as a regular who was playing multiple tables, i may have flat called - the reason being I'm new to these parts and he won't have any history with me, so metagame isn't a factor, but then again, i may have shoved.

Uggghghghh such metagames. He knows that you know, therefore you should... but when he knows that you know, that he knows... it goes full circle. The crux of the matter is that you need to be able to pinpoint where your opponent is in the cycle, and also what his likely range is, and compute this into your action. Of course this is much more difficult in practice, and can lead to over complicating things.

What's that saying again? KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID!